Wirtschaftswissenschaftler sind immer wieder rührend erfoglos in ihrem Versuch, wirtschaftliche Entwicklungen längerfristig vorherzusagen. Das hindert sie natürlich nicht, ihre Modelle und Methoden mit großer Ernsthaftigkeit auf noch komplexere Zusammenhänge anzuwenden.
Bryan Kaplan, Professor für Wirtschaftswissenschaften an einer der renommiertesten Universitäten Virginias weist beispielsweise schlüssig nach, dass Kinderreichtum aus wissenschaftlicher Sicht empfehlenswert ist. Es ist wirklich ganz einfach:
It's also true that modern parents are less happy than their childless counterparts. But happiness researchers rarely emphasize how small the happiness gap is.A closer look at the General Social Survey also reveals that child No. 1 does almost all the damage. Otherwise identical people with one child instead of none are 5.6 percentage points less likely to be very happy. Beyond that, additional children are almost a happiness free lunch. Each child after the first reduces your probability of being very happy by a mere .6 percentage points.Parents often change their kids in the short-run, but as kids grow up, their parents' influence wears off. Many find behavioral genetics depressing, but it's great news for parents and potential parents. If you think that your kids' future rests in your hands, you'll probably make many painful investments
— and feel guilty that you didn't do more. Once you realize that your kids' future largely rests in their own hands, you can give yourself a guilt-free break.Nachdem also offensichtlich geworden ist, dass Elternschaft nicht so schlimm ist, wie befürchtet, schreitet Prof. Kaplan zum naheliegenden Schluss:
Once parents stop overcharging themselves for every child, the next logical step is straight out of Econ 101: Buy more. When you raise your children the easy way, another child is more likely to pass the cost-benefit test. This doesn't mean you should copy the Duggars with their 19 children; when prices fall, Econ 101 says "Buy more," not "Buy dozens." But whatever your priorities, the science of nature and nurture tilts the scales in favor of fertility.
Vielleicht sollte Prof. Kaplan mal Deductive Reasoning 101 an einer geisteswissenschaftlichen Fakultät seines Vertrauens belegen.